Ocean Flows and Potential Waste Dispersion from Proposed Deep-Sea Mining in the Northern Mariana Islands EEZ

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has issued a Request for Information (RFI) for commercial leasing of outer continental shelf minerals offshore the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). The RFI Area, located east of the Mariana Trench National Monument along the eastern edge of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), spans approximately 35,483,044 acres (143,595 km²) with water depths from 3,700 to 25,100 feet (1,130 to 7,650 meters). This vast region includes abyssal plains, seamounts, and guyots, making it a potential site for deep-sea mining of polymetallic nodules and other minerals critical for technologies like batteries and electronics. However, such activities could generate sediment plumes and waste discharges, which may disperse via ocean currents, impacting marine ecosystems. Drawing from NOAA ocean flow data, satellite-derived wave and current information, and scientific studies, this article explores the ocean's layered structure, flow mechanisms, wind patterns, and potential waste flow areas in this region. It also provides forecasts for waste dispersion over 3, 5, 10, and 15 years, considering climate change influences.

The Three Levels of the Sea in the Mariana Region

The ocean in the Mariana Trench vicinity, including the RFI Area, can be divided into three primary vertical levels based on depth, water properties, and circulation patterns: the upper layer (roughly epipelagic to mesopelagic, 0-1,000 meters), the middle layer (bathypelagic, 1,000-4,000 meters), and the deep/bottom layer (abyssopelagic and hadalpelagic, below 4,000 meters). These layers align with observations in the Challenger Deep, the deepest part of the Mariana Trench, where a three-layer structure is evident in water properties and flows.

Upper Layer: This surface-influenced zone features warmer, less dense water with higher oxygen levels. Depths here range from the sunlit epipelagic (0-200m) to the twilight mesopelagic (200-1,000m). Currents are primarily wind-driven, with satellite data showing wave heights and surface flows like the North Equatorial Current dominating the western Pacific.

Middle Layer: Encompassing the bathypelagic zone (1,000-4,000m), this layer has colder, more saline water with intermediate circulation. In the Challenger Deep, it exhibits cyclonic (counterclockwise) flow patterns influenced by topography and mixing.

Deep/Bottom Layer: Below 4,000m, including abyssal and hadal zones, this layer contains the densest, coldest waters like Lower Circumpolar Water (LCPW) and North Pacific Deep Water (NPDW). Flows here are slow and geostrophic, with anticyclonic (clockwise) circulation in the Challenger Deep, driven by turbulent mixing and basin connectivity.

Flow Mechanisms in the Region

Ocean flows in the RFI Area are governed by a combination of surface and deep mechanisms. Surface currents, tracked via satellite altimetry and NOAA models, are driven by wind stress and the Coriolis effect, forming gyres like the North Pacific Gyre. The North Equatorial Current flows westward at speeds of 0.5-1 m/s near the surface. Deeper flows involve thermohaline circulation, where density differences from temperature and salinity gradients propel water masses. In the Mariana Basin, LCPW enters from the south, creating westward geostrophic flows at depths below 4,000m, with speeds around 1-5 cm/s. Tidal forces and turbulent mixing, enhanced by seamounts and guyots, further modulate bottom currents, leading to cyclonic and anticyclonic patterns in the Challenger Deep. Satellite data from missions like SWOT reveal hidden eddies and internal waves influencing mid-layer flows.

Here's a map illustrating regional ocean currents:

Wind Patterns and Their Influence on Surface Flows

The Northern Mariana Islands lie in the western Pacific's trade wind belt, dominated by northeast trade winds year-round, with speeds of 5-10 m/s. These winds drive surface waves and currents, contributing to the North Equatorial Current. Seasonal variations include stronger easterlies in winter and influences from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during summer, potentially reversing some flows. NOAA and PacIOOS models forecast persistent trade winds, with occasional typhoons amplifying wave energy. Climate change may intensify these patterns, increasing storm frequency over the next decade.

Visual representation of wind patterns:

Possible Flow Areas for Mining Waste

Deep-sea mining in the RFI Area would likely involve nodule collection at abyssal depths (4,000-6,000m), generating benthic plumes from seafloor disturbance and midwater plumes from dewatering discharge at 100-1,000m depths. Benthic plumes could spread 0.5-2.5 km horizontally via slow bottom currents (1-5 cm/s), settling on abyssal plains and seamounts. Midwater discharges might disperse tens of kilometers via intermediate flows, potentially reaching the Mariana Trench or adjacent basins. Surface waste could be carried westward by the North Equatorial Current, affecting broader Pacific ecosystems. Key flow areas include westward geostrophic paths in deep layers and cyclonic eddies in mid-depths, exacerbated by turbulent mixing around guyots.

Illustrations of waste plume dispersion:

THE FOLLOWING VIDEOS OF WAVE, WIND CALCULATE DISPERSEMENT FLOWS:

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(4) CALCULATED WIND/WAVE FLOWS - DIRECTIONAL >TO AND AWAY FROM< THE CNMI"

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3-5-10-15 Year Forecast for Waste Flow from BOEM Mining Areas

Forecasts assume mining commences soon and rely on current models, noting deep ocean stability but surface variability from climate change. Deep currents in the Pacific are expected to remain relatively unchanged over short timescales due to slow response to warming, but overall ocean heating could enhance mixing

Timeframe, Projected Waste Flow and Impacts

3 Years (by 2028),"Initial plumes confined locally (1-5 km dispersion), primarily in bottom layers. Surface waste minimal, carried 10-50 km westward by trade winds and currents. Low accumulation; ecosystems experience temporary smothering."

5 Years (by 2030),"Mid-layer dispersion expands to 10-20 km via cyclonic flows; benthic sediments persist, affecting seamount biodiversity. Climate-driven stronger winds may accelerate surface spread by 20%."

10 Years (by 2035),"Cumulative waste leads to broader basin connectivity, with plumes reaching 50+ km in deep layers. Deoxygenation from warming exacerbates impacts, potentially starving midwater life; persistent effects on food webs."

15 Years (by 2040),"Long-term dispersion could span hundreds of km if operations scale, with anticyclonic flows recycling waste in trenches. Intensified storms and altered currents from climate change may increase spread by 30-50%, threatening EEZ-wide ecosystems."

Comparative Analysis of Deep-Sea Mining in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone and the Northern Mariana Islands EEZ

Deep-sea mining for polymetallic nodules and other minerals is advancing in international waters, with the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) being a primary focus under the International Seabed Authority (ISA) and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) exploring similar activities in the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) offshore the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). The CCZ, spanning the eastern Pacific, contrasts with the Mariana RFI Area in the western Pacific in terms of scale, oceanographic dynamics, and potential environmental impacts from waste dispersion. This article compares the two regions using NOAA flow data, satellite-derived wave and marine information, and scientific studies. It breaks down the three levels of the sea, flow mechanisms, wind patterns, possible waste flow areas, and provides 3-5-10-15 year forecasts for waste flows, highlighting differences driven by their distinct locations.

Overview of the Mining Areas

The CCZ is an expansive abyssal region in the eastern tropical Pacific, covering about 4.5 million km² (1.7 million square miles) between the Clarion and Clipperton fracture zones, from approximately 5° to 20° N and 115° to 160° W. Water depths range from 4,000 to 6,000 meters, dominated by flat abyssal plains with polymetallic nodules, occasional seamounts, and fracture zones. In contrast, the Mariana RFI Area is smaller at 143,595 km² (35.5 million acres), located east of the Mariana Trench along the eastern U.S. EEZ edge, with depths from 1,130 to 7,650 meters, featuring abyssal plains, seamounts, and guyots.

Maps for visual comparison:

VIDEO SHOWING CNMI FIELD AREA-

VARIOUE EXPLORATORY FIELDS

The Three Levels of the Sea

Both regions exhibit a three-layered ocean structure, but differences in latitude and basin dynamics influence water properties and flows.

Layer, Clarion-Clipperton Zone, Mariana RFI Area

"Upper Layer (0-1,000 m)","Warmer, oxygen-rich epipelagic and mesopelagic zones influenced by equatorial upwelling and trade winds. Satellite data shows variable eddy activity.", "Similar, but in subtropical waters with stronger North Equatorial Current influence; less equatorial variability."

"Middle Layer (1,000-4,000 m)",Bathypelagic with intermediate waters; cyclonic flows and eddy-induced variability from gap winds., Cyclonic patterns tied to topography; more influenced by western boundary currents.

"Deep/Bottom Layer (>4,000 m)","Abyssopelagic with slow, density-driven flows like North Pacific Deep Water; eddy variability at 1-5 cm/s.", Hadal influences from trench proximity; anticyclonic flows with LCPW intrusion.

Flow Mechanisms

Flow in the CCZ is shaped by equatorial dynamics, with surface currents like the North Equatorial Current (westward, 0.5-1 m/s) and subsurface Equatorial Undercurrent. Deep flows are geostrophic and eddy-driven, with remote wind forcing creating variability. NOAA OSCAR data highlights mesoscale eddies. The Mariana area features similar thermohaline circulation but with stronger western Pacific influences, including LCPW and trench-modulated turbulence, leading to more confined deep flows.

Illustrative current maps:

Wind Patterns and Their Influence

The CCZ experiences equatorial trade winds (5-10 m/s northeast trades) with seasonal ITCZ shifts, causing reversals and gap wind events that propagate eddies to depth. This contrasts with the Mariana's subtropical trades, more consistent but prone to typhoons. Climate change may amplify CCZ variability via El Niño, while Mariana faces intensified storms.

Possible Flow Areas for Mining Waste

Mining in both areas generates benthic (seafloor) and midwater plumes. In the CCZ, benthic plumes disperse 0.5-5 km via slow bottom currents, settling on plains but recirculated by eddies; midwater discharges spread 10-100 km eastward/westward via undercurrents, impacting food webs. The Mariana's plumes may be more contained by topography (e.g., seamounts trapping sediment) but could flow into the trench, with surface waste carried westward faster

Example of flow Dispresement:

3-5-10-15 Year Forecasts for Waste Flows

Forecasts draw from climate models showing Pacific warming, altered currents, and deoxygenation. CCZ's equatorial position may see faster changes from El Niño shifts, while Mariana's subtropical location faces slower deep alterations but more storm-driven surface spread. Assumptions: Mining scales up post-2025, with deep stability but increasing variability.

Timeframe, Clarion-Clipperton Zone Waste Flow, Mariana RFI Area Waste Flow

3 Years (by 2028),Local benthic settling (1-5 km); midwater spread 10-50 km via eddies; minimal accumulation but food web disruptions., Similar local confinement (1-5 km); surface westward drift 10-30 km; trench trapping reduces spread.

5 Years (by 2030),Expanded mid-layer dispersion (20-100 km) with wind-forced variability; 10-20% increased spread from warming.,10-50 km spread; typhoon influences accelerate surface plumes by 15%.

10 Years (by 2035),Basin-wide effects (50-200 km+); deoxygenation exacerbates midwater impacts; El Niño shifts enhance eddy dispersion.,50-150 km; cumulative trench recycling; slower deep changes but biodiversity loss.

15 Years (by 2040),Hundreds of km dispersion if scaled; 30-50% increased variability from altered currents; ecosystem-wide threats.,100-300 km; storm intensification boosts spread by 40%; EEZ and trench ecosystems at risk.

These comparisons underscore the CCZ's greater scale and vulnerability to equatorial climate shifts, necessitating tailored mitigation strategies for each site

About the Author

Zaji “Persona Non Grata” Zajradhara is a staunch advocate for American workers and indigenous rights in the CNMI. Labeled a “persona non grata” by the CNMI government for his relentless pursuit of justice and his outspoken criticism of corruption and foreign influence, Zajradhara has become a symbol of resistance against the forces seeking to undermine American sovereignty in the islands.

As An Unemployed Afro-American resident and father, Zajradhara's firsthand experience with the CNMI’s dysfunctional labor market, its rigged political system, and the exploitation of vulnerable communities has fueled his activism. He has filed numerous legal claims against companies, including Tan Holdings, for violating labor laws and discriminating against American workers.

His unwavering commitment to exposing the truth, challenging the status quo, and demanding accountability has made him a thorn in the side of the CNMI establishment and a target of their efforts to silence him. However, Zajradhara remains undeterred, determined to fight for the rights of American workers and to protect the CNMI from the grip of foreign influence.